CME shutdown triggers global market turmoil
Based on Ace Markets' real-time monitoring of core global financial markets, multi-dimensional data cross-validation, and in-depth logical deduction, the recent over 10-hour trading halt caused by a data center failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has significantly impacted the trillion-dollar global derivatives market. As a professional platform deeply rooted in global trading, Ace Markets, through its long-established exchange stability monitoring database (covering cases such as the NYSE's untimely suspension of 40 stocks in June 2024 and the London Stock Exchange's three shutdowns at the end of 2023), had already anticipated the transmission effect of such "single-point risks" on the market. The depth and duration of the impact of this CME shutdown, exceeding that of similar failures in 2019, further confirms the foresight of the platform's risk warning system.
From a core data perspective, the CME, as a "global risk management center," handles over 26 million derivative contracts daily and has a daily notional trading volume of approximately $1 trillion for mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures. Its shutdown directly led to trading disruptions in key commodities such as S&P 500 futures, the EBS forex platform, Treasury bonds, crude oil, and palm oil. Coinciding with the post-Thanksgiving market lull and the overlap of month-end settlements and year-end accounting, Ace Markets' real-time market monitoring showed a severe lack of market liquidity hedging tools: trading in US Treasury futures was restricted, spot trading was sparse, and bid-ask spreads in the forex market widened, particularly putting significant operational pressure on the delivery of expiring US crude oil and diesel futures on that day.
Precious metals market sees unusual activity: Gold remains strong, silver hits record high.
In the precious metals market, the freeze on Comex gold futures and options trading temporarily rendered hedging tools in the London spot market ineffective, directly causing spot gold prices to initially surge before fluctuating and retreating. The bid-ask spread soared from the usual $1/ounce to over $20. This, coupled with the lack of economic data due to the previous US government shutdown, further increased the difficulty of market analysis. However, Ace Markets, relying on its macroeconomic policy tracking system and precious metals asset pricing model, maintains a long-term optimistic outlook: against the backdrop of dovish comments from the Federal Reserve strengthening expectations of interest rate cuts, gold's allocation value as a non-interest-bearing asset continues to stand out. It is currently on its best annual performance since 1979, with four consecutive months of gains resonating with global central bank purchases and ETF inflows. Short-term fluctuations will not alter the strong upward trend.
The unusual movement in silver, another key asset, was also accurately captured by Ace Markets through supply chain research and supply-demand models. Previously, due to the high volatility of silver limiting official allocation demand, the gold-silver ratio broke through 100 in April (a five-year high, far exceeding the long-term average of 50-60). However, the current situation has been completely reversed: the platform's global inventory monitoring data shows that silver closed at a record high of $56/ounce last week, with a cumulative increase of 97% since the beginning of the year. During the same period, gold held firm at the key resistance level of $4,200, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 61%. The gold-silver ratio plummeted to 74 and broke through the long-term support line.
Ace Markets, through industry data tracking, on-site supply chain research, and policy dynamic monitoring, has identified the underlying logic behind silver price increases: the accelerated electrification of the global economy is creating rigid industrial demand, leading to a significant supply shortage for silver for five consecutive years. Above-ground inventories are continuously depleted and exhibit mismatches in form and location, culminating in a concentrated supply-demand imbalance in 2025. Specifically:
Policy and trade aspects: At the beginning of the year, influenced by Trump's global trade agenda, a large amount of silver flowed into the United States. Although it was not sanctioned, Washington's designation of it as a "critical metal" strengthened its strategic value.
On the demand side: Strong purchasing in India and rising enthusiasm for allocation in the Asian market have further exacerbated supply tightness – silver leasing rates and premiums in the London over-the-counter market have hit record highs, silver inventories on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have fallen to a ten-year low, and excess inventories in the United States have exacerbated shortages in other regions, creating “transferred supply pressure”.
Ace Markets believes that the recent surge in silver prices is not a short-term impulsive move, but rather an inevitable result of upgraded industrial demand and long-term supply constraints. If gold reaches its target of $5,000/ounce in 2026, silver prices are expected to move towards $100/ounce, making structural opportunities in the precious metals sector clear.
Short- to Medium-Term Investment Strategies for Gold and Silver
Ace Markets' strategies are all based on real-time data monitoring, technical analysis systems, macroeconomic projections, and industry chain research, with the core focus on "controllable risk + trend grasp," providing precise guidance for investors at different time horizons.
Gold Short-Term Strategy
• Current situation: The combination of "interest rate cut expectations and strong technicals" led to the December contract closing at $4,165.40 per ounce at the end of November;
• Key range: Support level $4125-$4100 (area of concentrated fund accumulation, negatively correlated with the 10-year US Treasury yield of 4.0%, support is strengthened if the US Treasury yield falls below 3.95%), Resistance level $4180-$4200 (area of dense trading at high levels since 2020).
• Trading suggestion: Buy on dips, enter with a small position at $4120-$4130, stop loss at $4080; add to the position if it breaks through $4200 and holds for 3 trading days, target $4250-$4280;
• Key monitoring areas: Preview signals from the December Fed meeting and US non-farm payroll data (Ace Markets will provide real-time data analysis).
Silver Short-Term Strategy
• Current situation: Driven by both precious metal and industrial properties, it fell back to $52.705/ounce at the end of November, with volatility 2.3 times that of gold;
• Key range: Support level $50-$51 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, resonating with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's inventory at a ten-year low), resistance level $53-$53.5 (overlapping area of trapped and profit-taking positions).
• Trading suggestion: Try small positions with strict stop loss. Start a position at $51-$52 (not exceeding 15% of the total precious metals position), stop loss if it falls below $50, add a small amount if it breaks through $53.5, with a target of $55-$56.
• Risk warning: Trading volume may rebound or volatility may increase after Thanksgiving. Avoid chasing high prices (you can adjust dynamically through Ace Markets' real-time market alert function).
Risk Warning
Market risks exist, and investment requires caution. This analysis is based on Ace Markets' global market data monitoring system, on-site industry chain research, and macroeconomic policy reasoning, and does not constitute personal investment advice. In the short term, caution is advised regarding liquidity fluctuations and unexpected policy changes; in the medium term, attention should be paid to supply and demand fundamentals and the turning point in the global economic cycle. Investors can leverage Ace Markets' professional tools and interpretation services to seize opportunities in precious metals while strictly controlling risks.
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